America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are two charts that I have found interesting from a Technical Analysis perspective. I believe they are helpful in understanding the current stock market situation. I would like to reiterate my view that we are in a bear market rally, albeit subject to conditions I spoke of in my June 2 post. Here is …
In March of 2009 I wrote an article titled “A S&P500 Target of 100?” I am sure that the mere idea of such a target seems impossible to many. However, for a variety of reasons, many indicated in the aforementioned article, I believe that such a target is not only possible but increasing in likelihood. …
This post is an update to posts of March 17 and January 13. Here is a chart of the U.S. Dollar on a monthly basis since 1983: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com On the aforementioned March 17 and January 13 posts, I spoke of numerous reasons to expect, and fear, a U.S. Dollar decline, both from …
The June 9, 2010 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2010 1115.0 Dec. 31, 2010 1187.6 June 30, 2011 1243.5 Dec. 30, 2011 1280.0 These figures represent the median value across the 40 forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
On June 1 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Analysts Cheer For Recovery.” From the article: “Current estimates put the S&P 500 on track for earnings per share of $85.26 this year, according to Thomson Reuters, a return to 2007 levels. Analysts’ $96.61 forecast for 2011 earnings would mark a record that surpasses …
With the ongoing problems in Europe, fears of worldwide economic “contagion”, and many overt signs of economic slowing in the United States, one is led to wonder how susceptible the U.S. stock markets are to further declines. While I have written extensively about how I believe the stock market will face an exceedingly large decline …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share -From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share Currently, their estimates for …
I ran across the following weekly S&P500 chart and comment from Maurice Walker, of thechartpatterntrader.com at StockCharts.com. Although I do not necessarily agree with all of the chart’s annotations and the accompanying commentary, I definitely think that both are worthy of contemplation: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com (one can click on the chart to enlarge the …
I recently saw an ad for “Bubble Investing” and thought it was notable. It used to be that the mere idea of an asset bubble led to concern. Now, it appears as if asset bubbles are seen by many as more of an opportunity than a threat. Of course, investing in bubbles can be profitable. …
As seen in the chart below, the 50 day moving average (as seen in blue) for the VIX is now trending higher. This is the first time since March 2009 in which it has done so in a significant manner: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Of course, there are many different ways to measure volatility. Other …