America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the October 11-October 17 2010 issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, it had an article titled “The Corporate Profit Engine May Be Slowing.” The article contains a variety of information concerning earnings. An excerpt: “For the first time in more than a year, Wall Street analysts cut their forecasts for Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index earnings …
I have written a few posts about the bond market bubble, with the most recent being the post of October 4 titled “Thoughts On The Bond Bubble.” There are many aspects of the bond market that support the conclusion that it is in an enormous bubble. I ran across the following from the SentimenTrader.com daily …
I’ve written numerous posts about the U.S. Dollar, as I am very concerned about its vulnerability to a substantial decline (one that would take it considerably below 70, as discussed in the July 30 post) and the various ill-effects that would accompany such a decline. Of note, very few people have voiced concerns over the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. My previous post concerning their estimates can be found at this May 30 post) Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $82.87/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $78.29/share …
The stock market appears to be at an important juncture. As seen in the below chart, by Ron Walker (thechartpatterntrader.com) there is the much-discussed potential Head and Shoulders formation that looms large: (click on chart to enlarge)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) As well, the VIX is just above 20. As I have commented upon previously, over the …
Bloomberg BusinessWeek had a story on September 2 titled “Wayne McLeod: The Life and Death of a Mini-Madoff.” This Ponzi scheme was particularly brazen as it targeted federal law enforcement personnel. The story is an interesting one. I would slightly disagree with one statement in the article, “As primitive as they are, Ponzi schemes are …
On August 13 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “J&J Sets a Yield Low.” From the story: “The health-care products firm sold 10-year bonds with an interest rate of 2.95%, or a risk premium of 0.43 percentage point over comparable Treasurys.” The story provides an overview of the strong market environment for both …
The August 16-August 29 2010 Bloomberg BusinessWeek had an article on stock forecasts titled “The Market’s Economic Disconnect.” Here is an excerpt: “The fastest annual earnings increase in 22 years will push the S&P index up 20 percent in the last six months of 2010 to 1,242, according to the average projection of 12 firms …
For the last few quarters, I have been commenting upon the general lack of revenue growth in corporate results. I have focused on a variety of diversified manufacturers and distributors, all of them well-respected S&P500 firms. My last comment on this issue was on May 5. For the recently released 2Q 2010 financial results, …
I have written of “odd occurrences” and their significance, most recently in the July 14 post. The yield of the 2-Year Treasury is one example of these “odd occurrences.” Here is a 3 year daily chart: click on chart to enlarge image; chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Plotted below the 2-Year Treasury yield is the price …