America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are two charts that I find notable. The first is the daily chart of the US Dollar. I have added the 50-day moving average. As one can see, the trend seems to be “up.” This increase, if sustained, will pressure the US Dollar carry trade and that would likely have an outsized negative impact on various markets: …
In my opinion, the existence of asset price bubbles is of paramount importance. I have recently written a few posts on the subject. I would now like to comment on a Wall Street Journal article from Monday titled “Economists Warn of Asset-Price Bubbles.” Here is the link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126074172673289729.html First, I would like to reiterate that I …
The following chart shows a Weekly Log Chart of the S&P500 from 2007. I have drawn a trendline from the October 2007 highs as well as a retracement indicator from the March 2009 bottom of ~666. (Please note that the trendline and retracement both might be off by a “hair,” but this is relatively immaterial …
In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market …
from the November 3 FOMC Minutes: “Members noted the possibility that some negative side effects might result from the maintenance of very low short-term interest rates for an extended period, including the possibility that such a policy stance could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets or an unanchoring of inflation expectations. While members currently …
In June I wrote a post about investment frauds. That post can be found here: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/29/more-madoffs/ Since that June post, there have been a number of investment frauds uncovered. Of course, none have rivaled the size of Madoff’s; however, they haven’t been small either. Perhaps the most disconcerting aspect of these frauds is that most …
A November 20 Wall Street Journal article stated that Gold’s January 1980 record high would have an inflation-adjusted equivalent of $2,290/oz. I find it amazing that even after the long parabolic rise we have seen in Gold since 2001, we are still far short of that inflation-adjusted price. On an “all things considered” basis one …
I would like to highlight two notable developments that have lately arisen. Both have to do with interest rates on short-term US Government securities – the 3-month bill and 2-year note. First, a chart of each of these securities’ yields. Shown is a daily chart from January 2008 to the present, in LOG scale to show detail: Charts Courtesy …
One of the questions that frequently arises with Gold’s recent strong performance is “Is Gold in a bubble?” Before I make some comments concerning this question, here is a long-term monthly chart of Gold for reference: Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com Anytime a security acts as strongly as Gold has, it is natural to suspect …
Here is a link to a November 16 Wall Street Journal article titled “China’s Blunt Talk for Obama”: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125826103009548975.html I found this to be particularly interesting: “Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that a weak U.S. dollar and low U.S. interest rates had led to “massive speculation” that was inflating asset …