America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through November 2024. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 25, 2024: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.40: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 15, 2024. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2024: 2.7% full-year 2025: 2.2% full-year 2026: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 14, 2024 update (reflecting data through November 8, 2024) is -.5700: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through October 2024. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 31, 2024 update (reflecting data through October 25, 2024) is -.4004: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of October 6, 2024, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2024.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 24, 2024: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.28: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 17, 2024 update (reflecting data through October 11, 2024) is -.6079: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …