America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through November 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 19, 2020 update (reflecting data through November 13, 2020) is -.8328. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 23, 2020: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .83: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2020 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 16, 2020. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2020: -3.5% full-year 2021: 4.0% full-year 2022: …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 12, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economic Recovery Seen Staying on Track After Election.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 12, 2020 update (reflecting data through November 6, 2020) is -.3909. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through October 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of October 7, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …