The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 12, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economic Recovery Seen Staying on Track After Election.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Forecasters see an unemployment rate of 6.7% at the end of this year, down from 7.8% in last month’s survey. They now expect gross domestic product to contract 2.7% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 3.6% contraction they predicted last month. They forecast expansions of 3.6% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, only slightly slower than in the prior month’s survey.
Nearly 90% expect uncertainty to decrease for financial markets thanks to clarity about the election outcome and news of a potential coronavirus vaccine. Over 80% of respondents expect uncertainty to decrease for the economy in coming months.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 26.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%. For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 31.68%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted November 6 – November 10. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2020: -2.66%
full-year 2021: 3.58%
full-year 2022: 2.88%
full-year 2023: 2.43%
December 2020: 6.74%
December 2021: 5.59%
December 2022: 4.80%
December 2023: 4.37%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: .88%
December 2021: 1.22%
December 2022: 1.63%
December 2023: 1.97%
December 2020: 1.30%
December 2021: 2.03%
December 2022: 2.16%
December 2023: 2.20%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2020: $40.95
for 12/31/2021: $46.67
for 12/31/2022: $50.31
for 12/31/2023: $53.18
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3532.55 as this post is written