America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On April 7, the CalculatedRisk.com blog had a post titled “House Prices: Nominal, Real, Price-to-Rent.” The following chart is from that post, and it shows the historical price trends of both the Case-Shiller (Composite 20 Index as well as the National Index) and the CoreLogic indices: (click on chart to enlarge image) – My comments: …
There are two other aspects I would like to highlight with regard to the stock market. First, per my last two posts, my analysis indicates the entire stock market is currently a bubble. Given that conclusion, as well as my opinion that there are various other asset bubbles in existence right now, I would …
(This post is made in conjunction with the last post, “The Stock Market Bubble – General Comments“) There are various aspects of the stock market that lead me to conclude that the stock market is experiencing a bubble. First, for reference purposes, here is a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500 updated through February 28, …
In the February 11, 2011 post (“Stock Market Comment“) I mentioned, among other comments, that I believed the stock market, as a whole, is currently a bubble. I would like to elaborate upon my reasoning for such, especially since it is a view (admittedly) held by very few. What makes this stock market bubble particularly …
Starting with my June 2, 2010 post I wrote of my expectation for a near-term stock market advance despite what I viewed as highly problematical future conditions. I continue to maintain this view, albeit with the dangers discussed in subsequent posts, including that of October 13, 2010 “Comments On The Next Crash.” Although I continue …
There has been much written as to the future of residential real estate prices. The consensus appears to be for very slight appreciation for years. This consensus is echoed in the MacroMarkets September 2010 Home Price Expectations Survey Press Release (pdf). Here is a chart from that survey that shows the past history (green line) …
I have written a few posts about the bond market bubble, with the most recent being the post of October 4 titled “Thoughts On The Bond Bubble.” There are many aspects of the bond market that support the conclusion that it is in an enormous bubble. I ran across the following from the SentimenTrader.com daily …
Lately there has been much commentary on whether the bond market is in a bubble. While many believe such a bubble exists, others – including many prominent investors and commentators – disagree. As I have previously written, I believe that there is a bond bubble encompassing the entire bond market. While for many reasons one …
“When you live in a bubble, everyone is delusional…” – -Nouriel Roubini, May 11 2010 Charlie Rose interview Many people fail to see any asset bubbles in our current economic environment. Others see isolated asset bubbles. As I have previously stated in the April 8 post, “Our societal inability to spot and prevent asset bubbles …
The Boston Federal Reserve recently came out with a report dated August 12 titled “Reasonable People Did Disagree: Optimism and Pessimism About the U.S. Housing Market Before the Crash.” (pdf) A sentence from the abstract is particularly interesting: “We conclude by arguing that economic theory provides little guidance as to what should be the “correct” …