On January 25 Fortune had an article on asset bubbles titled “Beware the 4 new asset bubbles.” The four purported bubbles mentioned in the article are Gold, oil, the stock market, and Treasuries. I have discussed each of these markets, with the exception of oil, in previous posts. I found the logic and discussion in … Read more Article On Asset Bubbles
Here is a link to an interview today with Nouriel Roubini in which he discusses bubbles: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35078010 I would argue against those who believe that bubbles could start to form or that they are just beginning to form. I strongly believe that there are many bubbles in existence right now, and the implications of such … Read more Roubini Interview Concerning Bubbles
Given the incredibly outsized intervention efforts in the residential real estate market, I think it is important to examine some dynamics of the real estate bubble. Here is a chart from the 12/15/09 Contrary Investor commentary that I believe is interesting, as it depicts some underlying residential real estate fundamentals. It shows the equity and mortgage … Read more Characteristics Of The Housing Bubble
I would like to make a couple of comments regarding the speech Ben Bernanke gave on January 3. It was titled “Monetary Policy and The Housing Bubble.” (pdf) I could make a significant amount of comments regarding this speech, as I partly or fully disagree with many of the points presented. I will, however, briefly comment … Read more Ben Bernanke’s January 3rd Speech
As I, as well as others, have been frequently mentioning bubbles, I thought it would be interesting to post a few comments (excerpts) that Larry Summers made concerning their effects during his March 13, 2009 speech. I found these comments to be very interesting, especially in light of our current economic condition and prospects for Sustainable Prosperity. … Read more Larry Summers On Bubbles – March 13 2009 Speech
In my opinion, the existence of asset price bubbles is of paramount importance. I have recently written a few posts on the subject. I would now like to comment on a Wall Street Journal article from Monday titled “Economists Warn of Asset-Price Bubbles.” Here is the link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126074172673289729.html First, I would like to reiterate that I … Read more Article On Asset Price Bubbles
In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market … Read more When Might I Become “Bullish”?
from the November 3 FOMC Minutes: “Members noted the possibility that some negative side effects might result from the maintenance of very low short-term interest rates for an extended period, including the possibility that such a policy stance could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets or an unanchoring of inflation expectations. While members currently … Read more Bubbles
One of the questions that frequently arises with Gold’s recent strong performance is “Is Gold in a bubble?” Before I make some comments concerning this question, here is a long-term monthly chart of Gold for reference: Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com Anytime a security acts as strongly as Gold has, it is natural to suspect … Read more Is Gold Experiencing A Bubble?
Here is a link to a November 16 Wall Street Journal article titled “China’s Blunt Talk for Obama”: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125826103009548975.html I found this to be particularly interesting: “Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that a weak U.S. dollar and low U.S. interest rates had led to “massive speculation” that was inflating asset … Read more Interesting Comments From Liu Mingkang