Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q4 2016

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of April 5, 2017, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2017.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of April 28, 2017

Doug Short had a blog post of April 28, 2017 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment:  April Final Continues Positive Trend“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts …

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Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2017

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP Drops to .7 percent, Disappoints Forecast” post of April 28, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 28, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 20, 2017 update (reflecting data through April 14, 2017) is -1.309. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 24, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .08: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – April 24, 2017 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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