Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q4 2016

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of April 5, 2017, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2017.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read moreAnother Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q4 2016

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 28, 2017

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of April 28, 2017.  As one can see, two of the three measures are at an … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 28, 2017

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of April 28, 2017

Doug Short had a blog post of April 28, 2017 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment:  April Final Continues Positive Trend“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of April 28, 2017

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – First Quarter 2017

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – First Quarter 2017

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2017

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP Drops to .7 percent, Disappoints Forecast” post of April 28, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 28, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2017

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2017

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2017, updated on April 27, 2017. This value is $238,713 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2017

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 20, 2017 update (reflecting data through April 14, 2017) is -1.309. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 24, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .08: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators April 2017

The U.S. Economic Situation – April 24, 2017 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – April 24, 2017 Update

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – April 21, 2017 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – April 21, 2017 Update