America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 19, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 13, 2017: Year 2017 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $129.69/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 13, 2017 update (reflecting data through April 7, 2017) is -1.369. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2017 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Gaining Momentum?” One area of the report is Figure 1.20 on page 29. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 94 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The April 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 13, 2017. The headline is “Forecasters Lower Growth Outlook as Hopes for Quick Stimulus Fade.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 6, 2017 update (reflecting data through March 31, 2017) is -1.363. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Throughout this site there are many charts of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. While many are still indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of weakness. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict greater degrees of weakness and/or other worrisome trends, and a …