Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of October 28, 2016

Doug Short had a blog post of October 28, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment :  October Final Declines“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of October 28, 2016

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Third Quarter 2016

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – Third Quarter 2016

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through October 28, 2016

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of October 28, 2016.  As one can see, two of the three measures are at an … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through October 28, 2016

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 3rd Quarter 2016

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate:  A  Surprising Strong 2.9%” post of October 28, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 28, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 3rd Quarter 2016

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through September 2016

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2016, updated on October 27, 2016. This value is $227,278 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through September 2016

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the October 20, 2016 update (reflecting data through October 14) is -1.136. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Markets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – October 21, 2016 Update

In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through October 21, 2016) from Doug Short’s blog … Read moreMarkets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – October 21, 2016 Update

Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 24, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.21): – The ECRI … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators October 2016

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of October 21, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business … Read moreBroad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity