America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his October 6, 2016 post titled …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 29, 2016 update (reflecting data through September 23) is -1.045. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2016 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Subdued Demand.” One area of the report is Figure 1.20 on page 30. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I …
On October 4, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Changed Little in September.” Notable excerpts include: The modest improvement in Americans’ economic confidence first evident after the Democratic National Convention continued for a second consecutive month. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged -10 for the month of September, in line with …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Monday’s (October 3, 2016) close, which had a closing value of 13.57. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …