Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of January 29, 2016

Doug Short had a blog post of January 29, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment:  January Final Fractionally Below December“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above …

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Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 4th Quarter 2015

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate at .7%, Down from Q3 Third Estimate” post of January 29, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 29, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through December 2015

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, updated on January 28, 2016. This value is $225,422 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 21, 2016 update (reflecting data through January 15) is -.416. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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U.S. Deflation – January 27, 2016 Update

This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of September 21, 2015 titled “U.S. Deflation – September 21, 2015 Update.”   I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are …

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Money Supply Charts Through December 2015

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2016: (current reading of -.22; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.24): – The ECRI WLI (Weekly …

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