America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On June 13, 2025, the Fannie Mae Q2 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q2 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey information is available, including the chart seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2025:Q1). The last value (as of the June 12, 2025 update) is $169.307269 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 12, 2025 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $1.6 Trillion in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: As seen in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 12, 2025 update (reflecting data through June 6, 2025) is -.8111: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The May 2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 10, 2025. The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 3.0 points to 98.8. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels. As seen …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …