America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2025, and were last updated as of April 30, 2025. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.619: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart reflecting Real GDP, as depicted, with value $23,542.349. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) of April 30, 2025: source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 30, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 _________ I post …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of April 29, 2025 (“Consumer Confidence Plunges to 5-Year Low in April“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 24, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.03: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2025, updated on April 24, 2025. This value is $315,729 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 11, 2025, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …