America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
With the recent increase in interest rates, perhaps the paramount question is what impact a rising interest rate environment will have on the economy. First, for reference, here is a long-term chart of interest rates from 1962, as seen in Doug Short’s post of August 17 titled “Treasury Yields In Perspective” : (click on chart …
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets. Since my last post on the Bond Bubble (the July 25, 2012 post titled “The Bond Bubble – July 2012 Update“) yields of various Treasury maturities have started to increase. Here is a chart depicting the recent movements of various (3-month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year …
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets. Since my last post on the Bond Bubble (the February 21 post titled “The Bond Bubble – February 2012 Update“) yields of various Treasury maturities have continued to decline and many have been establishing all-time lows in the last few days. Here is a …
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets. Since my last update on August 15, 2011 (“The Bond Bubble – Update“), the yield on the 10-Year Treasury has roughly been in the 1.7%-2.4% range. This is seen in the 3-year daily chart, LOG-basis, as shown below: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart …
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets. In particular, I would like to highlight my post of October 4 2010, “Thoughts On The Bond Bubble.” During the recent market tumult, bond yields have once again dropped sharply to very low levels, as seen by the yield on the 10-Year …
(this is the third in a series of five posts concerning the markets) The bond market is believed by many to be an asset bubble. I agree with this assessment, and have written a few posts on the subject. I discussed when it may “burst” and other considerations in an October 4 post. The chart …
Lately there has been much commentary on whether the bond market is in a bubble. While many believe such a bubble exists, others – including many prominent investors and commentators – disagree. As I have previously written, I believe that there is a bond bubble encompassing the entire bond market. While for many reasons one …
As seen on the following 10-year daily chart, the 10-Year Treasury Yield has been rising as of late: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com There is very little general expectation for a significant rise in interest rates. In fact, the average economist forecast (as seen for the March 2010 Wall Street Journal Economist Survey) for the 10-Year …
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was on “This Week” on Sunday and made various comments. Here is the link: http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/week-transcript-treasury-secretary-timothy-geithner/story?id=9758951 I could make a lot of comments regarding this interview. However, I would like to focus on this one exchange: TAPPER: The Congress just voted to raise the debt ceiling to more than $14 trillion dollars. …
from the November 3 FOMC Minutes: “Members noted the possibility that some negative side effects might result from the maintenance of very low short-term interest rates for an extended period, including the possibility that such a policy stance could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets or an unanchoring of inflation expectations. While members currently …