America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief fourth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. I continue to believe the October 4 1074.77 low on the S&P500 will not be a …
Yesterday (January 4, 2012) The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Street Wary on Its Random Walk.” In this article, 2012 S&P500 price forecasts from 13 financial firms are displayed and discussed. As seen in the subtitle, the strategists at the 13 firms expect, on average, for the S&P500 to end 2012 at 1334, …
On June 29 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” I continue to believe that the “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator among (very) many that serves as a “red flag” as to …
In the June 29 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would indicate. …
In the December 19 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Buckle Up!” Included in the story, 10 “stock-market strategists and investment managers” give various forecasts including 2012 S&P500 profits, 2012 S&P500 year-end price targets, 2012 & 2013 GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen on page 27: The mean prediction of …
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief third update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. I have written numerous posts of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative …
The December 8, 2011 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2011 1267.7 June 29, 2012 1322.5 Dec. 31, 2012 1395 Dec. 31, 2013 1480 These figures represent the median value across the 35 forecasters on …
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief second update (the first being on November 18 titled “Building Financial Danger – An Update“) to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. There are …
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) – It …
This post is an update to recent posts that began on October 6 (“A Chart Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility“) on stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following chart to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent outsized volatility in the stock market. This chart …