On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief second update (the first being on November 18 titled “Building Financial Danger – An Update“) to that post.
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. There are many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature.
While many take comfort in a variety of recently improving economic indicators and historically positive stock market seasonality, in my opinion this type of extrapolation from historical norms is largely inappropriate given the unique and highly perilous situation the overall financial system is facing. I have written numerous posts of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”
My analysis indicates that this continues to be an environment of rising risks and therefore is very dangerous in nature. As far as the stock market is concerned, I don’t believe the October 4 1074.77 low on the S&P500 will prove to be a “lasting bottom”, and the dynamics as described in the October 20 post (“Thoughts On The Next Stock Market Decline“) and other disturbing long-term “downside” factors still apply.
As reference, below is a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500 (plotted above, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma) and the VIX (plotted below in red, with a rising trendline displayed in dark blue):
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1238.34 as this post is written