America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On Wednesday (June 23) MacroMarkets released its June Home Price Expectations Survey results. Here is the Press Release (pdf); the accompanying chart is seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the expectation is that not only has the residential real estate market hit a “bottom” as far as pricing; but that steady …
I found this MacroMarkets web page to be an interesting characterization of the U.S. residential real estate market. Here is an excerpt: “With an aggregate capital value of $16.6 trillion at the end of 2009, real property owned by United States households comprises the largest real estate marketplace – and one of the largest asset …
On May 19 The Wall Street Journal had an article about a new housing survey called the MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey. From the MacroMarkets.com website: “MacroMarkets has assembled a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts who are surveyed every month regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices …
On April 23, chartoftheday.com had an interesting chart, shown below, that compares the median home price vs. the price of Gold: Traditionally, houses have been viewed as “hard assets.” However, as one can see above, their recent (from a long-term historical perspective) price pattern seems more geared to that of a “paper asset” – i.e. …
One of the commonly stated reasons for buying a home now, as opposed to renting, is that “I can own (a home) cheaper than I can rent.” This is no doubt the case in many areas of the country, especially those that have experienced large declines in residential real estate prices. Is this condition, where …
I came across an interesting Fortune Magazine story dated February 16 titled “Where’s housing headed? Follow rents.” The link can be found here. Of course, given my previous posts on residential real estate I don’t agree with many aspects of the story, especially the statement “Given that analysis, it’s likely that prices will fall another …
Given the incredibly outsized intervention efforts in the residential real estate market, I think it is important to examine some dynamics of the real estate bubble. Here is a chart from the 12/15/09 Contrary Investor commentary that I believe is interesting, as it depicts some underlying residential real estate fundamentals. It shows the equity and mortgage …
Here is a Wall Street Journal editorial on the December 24 developments at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This editorial provides some new perspectives on the matter: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704152804574628350980043082.html My original comments on these developments was on December 28. I feel it is critically important to understand the extent of intervention as it pertains to the housing market. Fannie …
This was an interesting editorial in The Wall Street Journal a few days ago concerning the “redefault” rate: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124338503008056785.html These statistics are problematical, especially if one believes the economy will stagnate or worsen from this juncture. It also raises the question as to the effectiveness of intervention measures on default rates and housing prices. Many of the current …