Identifying The Housing Bubble

The Boston Federal Reserve recently came out with a report dated August 12 titled “Reasonable People Did Disagree:  Optimism and Pessimism About the U.S. Housing Market Before the Crash.” (pdf) A sentence from the abstract is particularly interesting: “We conclude by arguing that economic theory provides little guidance as to what should be the “correct” …

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MacroMarkets June 2010 Home Price Expectations Survey

On Wednesday (June 23) MacroMarkets released its June Home Price Expectations Survey results. Here is the Press Release (pdf); the accompanying chart is seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the expectation is that not only has the residential real estate market hit a “bottom” as far as pricing; but that steady …

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MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey

On May 19 The Wall Street Journal had an article about a new housing survey called the MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey. From the website: “MacroMarkets has assembled a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts who are surveyed every month regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices …

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Characteristics Of The Housing Bubble

Given the incredibly outsized intervention efforts in the residential real estate market, I think it is important to examine some dynamics of the real estate bubble. Here is a chart from the 12/15/09 Contrary Investor commentary that I believe is interesting, as it depicts some underlying residential real estate fundamentals.  It shows the equity and mortgage …

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Ben Bernanke’s January 3rd Speech

I would like to make a couple of comments regarding the speech Ben Bernanke gave on January 3.  It was titled “Monetary Policy and The Housing Bubble.” (pdf) I could make a significant amount of comments regarding this speech, as I partly or fully disagree with many of the points presented. I will, however, briefly comment …

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A Classic Article Revisited

One of the classic articles of the housing bubble is “America’s House Party” from Time Magazine, June 2005.  It really provides a flavor of the period, as well as provides a perspective of a bubble environment. Here is the link:,9171,1069097,00.html   SPX at 1032.81 as this post is written