America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 9, 2017 update (reflecting data through February 3, 2017) is -1.211. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 2, 2017 update (reflecting data through January 27, 2017) is -1.21. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 26, 2017 update (reflecting data through January 20, 2017) is -1.188. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 5, 2017, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2017.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2016, updated on January 27, 2017. This value is $227,018 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of January 27, 2017. As one can see, one of the three measures is at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 1.9%, Worse Than Forecast ” post of January 27, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 27, 2017: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about …