America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 5, 2017, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 5, 2017.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of July 28, 2017. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%” post of July 28, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q2 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of July 28, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 27, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .13: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2017, updated on July 27, 2017. This value is $245,568 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 20, 2017 update (reflecting data through July 14, 2017) is -1.505. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 13, 2017 update (reflecting data through July 7, 2017) is -1.475. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 6, 2017 update (reflecting data through June 30, 2017) is -1.505. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 6, 2017 update (reflecting data through June 30, 2017) is -1.505. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …