Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The July 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 27, 2017:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .13:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 27, 2017;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .06:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 27, 2017;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of July 21, 2017 (incorporating data through July 14, 2017) the WLI was at 143.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.6%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of July 21, 2017:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through July 22, 2017:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the July 20, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in June” (pdf) the LEI was at 127.8, the CEI was at 115.5, and the LAG was 124.4 in June.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in June, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. economy and perhaps even a moderate improvement in GDP growth in the second half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The broad-based gain in the U.S. LEI was led by a large contribution from housing permits, which improved after several months of weakness.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of July 20, 2017:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2478.16 as this post is written