America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 23, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .17: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 12, 2017 update (reflecting data through October 6, 2017) is -1.540. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 5, 2017 update (reflecting data through September 29, 2017) is -1.552. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2017 “World Economic Outlook.” The subtitle is ”Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges.” One area of the report is Figure 1.19 on page 26. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of October 5, 2017, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 28, 2017 update (reflecting data through September 22, 2017) is -1.546. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 21, 2017 update (reflecting data through September 15, 2017) is -1.533. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …