America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 9, 2017 update (reflecting data through November 3, 2017) is -1.60. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 2, 2017 update (reflecting data through October 27, 2017) is -1.529. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 26, 2017 update (reflecting data through October 20, 2017) is -1.567. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of October 4, 2017, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2017.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of October 27, 2017. As one can see, two of the three measures are very near …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 3.0%” post of October 27, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 27, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2017, updated on October 25, 2017. This value is $238,695 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 19, 2017 update (reflecting data through October 13, 2017) is -1.555. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …