America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 1, 2018 update (reflecting data through January 26, 2018) is -1.431. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 25, 2018 update (reflecting data through January 19, 2018) is -1.463. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 4, 2018, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2018.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of January 26, 2018. As one can see, two of the three measures are very near …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%” post of January 26, 2018, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 26, 2018: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2017, updated on January 26, 2018. This value is $249,448 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 18, 2018 update (reflecting data through January 12, 2018) is -1.492. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .27: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …