America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 5, 2024, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2024.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 25, 2024 update (reflecting data through January 19, 2024) is -.8037: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 25, 2024: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.15: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2023, and were last updated as of January 25, 2024. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.546: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of January 25, 2024 titled “…Real GDP at 3.3%, Higher Than Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) of January 25, 2024: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2023, updated on January 25, 2024. This value is $295,559 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 11, 2024 update (reflecting data through January 5, 2024) is -.5486: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …