Another Recession Probability Indicator – Through Q2 2022

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of October 21, 2022, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2022.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 3rd Quarter 2022

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of October 27, 2022 titled “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) of October 27, 2022: _________ I post various indicators and indices because …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through September 2022

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2022, updated on October 27, 2022. This value is $274,717 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

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Money Supply Charts Through September 2022

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2022

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 24, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of 0.10: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 20, 2022 update (reflecting data through October 14, 2022) is -1.4153: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 6, 2022 update (reflecting data through September 30, 2022) is -1.2385: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …

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