Money Supply Charts Through April 2022

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

Read more

Updates Of Economic Indicators May 2022

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 23, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .47: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

Read more

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q4 2021

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of April 6, 2022, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2022.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

Read more

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2022

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of April 28, 2022 titled “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -1.4%, Worse Than Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) of April 28, 2022: _________ I post various indicators …

Read more