Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the May 14, 2020 update (reflecting data through May 8, 2020) is .6123. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the May 7, 2020 update (reflecting data through May 1, 2020) is .865. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Recession Probability Models – May 2020

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – May 2020

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 30, 2020 update (reflecting data through April 24, 2020) is 1.955. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q4 2019

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of February 1, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read more Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q4 2019

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 29, 2020

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2020, and were last updated as of April 29, 2020. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.235: Data Source: FRED, … Read more Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 29, 2020

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2020

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of April 29, 2020 titled “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -4.8%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) of April 29, 2020: _________ I post various indicators and indices because … Read more Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2020

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 23, 2020 update (reflecting data through April 17, 2020) is 1.2984. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The post on Advisor Perspectives of April 24, 2020, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index … Read more Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2020

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2020, updated on April 24, 2020. This value is $213,184 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read more Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2020