St. Louis Financial Stress Index – January 24, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on January 24, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to January 18, …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2013

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 22, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 1/18/13 (incorporating data through 1/11/13) the WLI was at …

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Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – January 17, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on January 17, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to January 11, …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – January 10, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on January 10, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to January 4, …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – January 3, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on January 3, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 28, …

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Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Atlanta Fed maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described …

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Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The current levels of each are notable, as they are flagging from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink. Doug Short, in his blog post …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – December 27, 2012 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on December 27, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 21, …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through November 2012

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November, last updated on December 21.  This value is 220,941 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …

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