America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate Surprises to the Downside” post of April 29, 2015, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 29, 2015: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 23, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 17) is -1.198. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March, updated on April 24, 2015. This value is $240,175 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 16, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 10) is -1.154. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 20, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of April 17, 2015 (incorporating data through April …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 9, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 3) is -1.072. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2015 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors.” One area of the report is Figure 1.13 on page 20. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 2, 2015 update (reflecting data through March 27) is -1.063. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …