America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on February 6, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to January 31, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX at 1775.49 as this post is written
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the fourth quarter of 2013, and were last updated as of January 30, 2014. As one can see, two of the three measures are at all-time …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on January 30, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to January 24, …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, last updated on January 28. This value is 229,319 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 23, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 1/17/14 (incorporating data through 1/10/14) the …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on January 23, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to January 17, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on January 16, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to January 10, …