America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 24, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of September 18, 2015 (incorporating data through September …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 17, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 11) is -.68. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of September 17, 2015, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 10, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 4) is -.591. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 10, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 4) is -.591. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 27, 2015 update (reflecting data through August 21) is -.808. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through July, updated on August 26, 2015. This value is $241,108 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 20, 2015 update (reflecting data through August 14) is -.968. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …