The Stock Market And The Economy

In the August 16-August 29 Bloomberg BusinessWeek, there is a quote from Jeremy Siegel in which he says, “The stock market’s telling us there’s some good things happening.  And I don’t think it’s only what they think Bernanke is going to say.  There is now a very broad consensus that this…is not going to develop …

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Macroeconomic Advisers On Possibility Of Double Dip

I found this June 10 blog post, titled “The Chances of a ‘Double-Dip’ are Essentially Nil” by Macroeconomic Advisers to be notable. Of course, I am not in agreement with those that believe any material further economic weakness will be avoided.  However, many economists feel differently; as I have noted in the post of June …

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Recession Measures – Two Charts

As an additional note to the last post, on April 12 the CalculatedRisk blog had an interesting post titled “Recession Measures.” In it, he discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries. In the post he shows four charts, constructed in a “percent of peak” fashion.  Here are the two that I find …

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NBER BCDC Member Robert J. Gordon Comments

On April 12 Robert J. Gordon, a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, wrote of the reasons why he believes that “It is obvious that the recession is over.” There are many noteworthy items in his article, and I could extensively comment on his arguments.  Needless to say I disagree, fully or partially, …

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The “Double-Dip” Scenario

Lately there have been an increasing number of people citing the possibility of a “double-dip” recession.  Much of this scenario is predicated upon the belief that as government stimulus spending fades, so too will economic activity. This March 5 article from CNBC.com summarizes some of the opinions regarding the double-dip reasoning and possibilities. I find …

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Another Forecast Mentioning “Double-Dip” Possibility

Goldman Sachs yesterday came out with a new forecast on the S&P500 price as well as operating earnings, as seen on CNBC.com here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31774313 I found the following phrase interesting; as this is another forecast that mentions the possibility of a “double-dip” recession in the future: “Goldman’s current economic view is for below-trend growth through …

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