America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets. In particular, I would like to highlight my post of October 4 2010, “Thoughts On The Bond Bubble.” During the recent market tumult, bond yields have once again dropped sharply to very low levels, as seen by the yield on the 10-Year …
On June 2, Janet Yellen, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, gave a speech titled “Assessing Potential Financial Imbalances in an Era of Accomodative Monetary Policy” (pdf) While I don’t agree with many of her points and assertions, I nonetheless think the topic is very important. As such, here are …
On March 1 I wrote a post titled “The Stock Market Bubble – Various Aspects.” In that post I highlighted a variety of factors that support my conclusion that the entire stock market is experiencing a bubble. One of the factors listed was “Extremely rapid valuation increases seen in a variety of private (tech) companies to …
There are two other aspects I would like to highlight with regard to the stock market. First, per my last two posts, my analysis indicates the entire stock market is currently a bubble. Given that conclusion, as well as my opinion that there are various other asset bubbles in existence right now, I would …
(This post is made in conjunction with the last post, “The Stock Market Bubble – General Comments“) There are various aspects of the stock market that lead me to conclude that the stock market is experiencing a bubble. First, for reference purposes, here is a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500 updated through February 28, …
In the February 11, 2011 post (“Stock Market Comment“) I mentioned, among other comments, that I believed the stock market, as a whole, is currently a bubble. I would like to elaborate upon my reasoning for such, especially since it is a view (admittedly) held by very few. What makes this stock market bubble particularly …
Starting with my June 2, 2010 post I wrote of my expectation for a near-term stock market advance despite what I viewed as highly problematical future conditions. I continue to maintain this view, albeit with the dangers discussed in subsequent posts, including that of October 13, 2010 “Comments On The Next Crash.” Although I continue …
Lately there has been much commentary on whether the bond market is in a bubble. While many believe such a bubble exists, others – including many prominent investors and commentators – disagree. As I have previously written, I believe that there is a bond bubble encompassing the entire bond market. While for many reasons one …
“When you live in a bubble, everyone is delusional…” – -Nouriel Roubini, May 11 2010 Charlie Rose interview Many people fail to see any asset bubbles in our current economic environment. Others see isolated asset bubbles. As I have previously stated in the April 8 post, “Our societal inability to spot and prevent asset bubbles …
The Boston Federal Reserve recently came out with a report dated August 12 titled “Reasonable People Did Disagree: Optimism and Pessimism About the U.S. Housing Market Before the Crash.” (pdf) A sentence from the abstract is particularly interesting: “We conclude by arguing that economic theory provides little guidance as to what should be the “correct” …