America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 5, 2024, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2024.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 25, 2024 update (reflecting data through January 19, 2024) is -.8037: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 25, 2024: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.15: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2023, and were last updated as of January 25, 2024. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.546: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of January 25, 2024 titled “…Real GDP at 3.3%, Higher Than Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) of January 25, 2024: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I …