America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On April 12 Robert J. Gordon, a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, wrote of the reasons why he believes that “It is obvious that the recession is over.” There are many noteworthy items in his article, and I could extensively comment on his arguments. Needless to say I disagree, fully or partially, …
This post provides updated charts to the “Three Unemployment Charts” post of January 12. As I have commented previously, most notably in an October 6 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction. However, I believe that the following charts …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained a couple items of interest. First, an interesting quote in the survey: “”The Fed dropped the funds rate to near zero due to a fast and sharp decline in economy. Having avoided a 1930s-type scenario, is a 0% policy rate still justified?” said Joseph Carson of …
On April 13, the NFIB put out a notable press release. Although the entire press release is worth reading, here are some notable excerpts: “The March reading is very low and headed in the wrong direction,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist. “Something isn’t sitting well with small business owners. Poor sales and uncertainty continue …
It strongly appears as if many taxes will increase at all levels (Federal, State, Local) in the near future. We, as a nation, are in a quandary as taxation needs to increase if we hope to narrow deficits and debt; yet at the same time the adverse economic effects of these increases may be large, …
The April 19 BusinessWeek has a story titled “The Case for More Stimulus,” along with this interesting accompanying chart (pdf), “Stimulus That Makes a Difference.” Of course, those familiar with this blog know that I tend to disagree with this type of article on various fronts. One question (among many) that supporters of further stimulus …
I came upon some statistics with regard to food stamps. The program is called “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” or SNAP. The figures are impressively large, unfortunately. As well, the growth rates are brisk. Here is a table showing the Number of People Participating; as of January the figure is 39,430,724 up 22.4% from year-ago levels. …
Yesterday William C. Dudley, President and CEO of The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, gave a speech titled “Asset Bubbles and the Implications for Central Bank Policy.” Although there are many parts of this speech with which I disagree, I found this speech noteworthy and interesting. I could make exhaustive comments about many parts …
As seen on the following 10-year daily chart, the 10-Year Treasury Yield has been rising as of late: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com There is very little general expectation for a significant rise in interest rates. In fact, the average economist forecast (as seen for the March 2010 Wall Street Journal Economist Survey) for the 10-Year …
Over the years, the topic of productivity has often been mentioned. I’ve had thoughts on the matter for years. An example is this “Letter To The Editor” I wrote concerning a BusinessWeek story back in 1995 (3rd letter down). Here is a March 31 Washington Post story on productivity. As the article says, “One of …