America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As seen in the chart below, the 50 day moving average (as seen in blue) for the VIX is now trending higher. This is the first time since March 2009 in which it has done so in a significant manner: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Of course, there are many different ways to measure volatility. Other …
The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey focuses on the economic problems in Europe and the odds of The Federal Reserve increasing interest rates. As seen in the detail of this survey, the current average forecasts for December 31, 2010 among economists polled include the following: Ten-Year Treasury Yield: 4.16% CPI: 1.8% Unemployment: 9.3% …
I found this passage from Milton Friedman in 1958, as seen on John B. Taylor’s blog, to be notable, especially given the immense monetary and fiscal policy actions taken to “improve” our economic situation: “The available evidence…casts grave doubt on the possibility of producing any fine adjustments in economic activity by fine adjustments in monetary …
I found this exchange on last Sunday’s (May 9) “60 Minutes” to be interesting. It is between Scott Pelley of “60 Minutes” and Hillary Clinton. For now I will simply post the exchange, and may comment upon it later: Pelley: “Larry Summers, the president’s economic advisor, asked this question: ‘How long can the world’s biggest …
John B. Taylor had a blog post on May 1, 2010 that discussed the impact of government stimulus on GDP. The post is titled “Latest Data Continue to Show Little Impact of Government Stimulus on GDP.” _____ One of the reasons that I write extensively about interventions, which includes stimulus programs, is that I believe …
The following excerpt is from the Global Economics section of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, May 10-May 16 2010: “Industrial America’s plight can be encapsulated in a few incredible numbers. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. employment in manufacturing over the past six months has been the lowest since March 1941, before the U.S. entered World …
I find last Thursday’s stock market plunge to be highly notable on several fronts. The temptation is to treat the event as a “fluke” or “one off” event that is inconsequential; it is especially tempting to do so when most of the damage was quickly reversed and, as of this writing, stock indices are again …
On an intermittent basis I post a summary of my thoughts on our (U.S.) current economic situation. My overall views have not changed since my last post on the subject, which can be found in the January 19 post. back to <home> SPX at 1128.15 as this post is written
“And long before this recession hit — for a decade — middle-class families had already been expensing — experiencing a sense of declining economic security. Their paychecks were flat-lining even though the cost of everything from groceries to college educations to health care were all going up.” President Obama, during an April 2, 2010 speech …
For the last few quarters, I have been commenting upon the general lack of revenue growth in corporate results. I have focused on a variety of diversified manufacturers and distributors, all of them well-respected S&P500 firms. My last comment on this issue was on January 29. For the recently released 1Q2010 financial results, it …