Financial Stocks – Relative Price To Overall Stock Market – January 8, 2014 Update

In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable.  It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would …

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Building Financial Danger – January 8, 2014 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 32nd update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …

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January 7 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On January 7, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Improved Again in December.”  The subtitle is “Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index rose to -19 from -25 in November.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index improved to -19 in December from -25 in November, and is now much higher than the -35 found …

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December 2013 Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey – Notable Excerpts

On December 11 the December Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf) was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in …

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The S&P500 Vs. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index – January 6, 2014

Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …

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Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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Deloitte “CFO Signals” Report 4Q 2013 – Notable Aspects

Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 4th Quarter of 2013. As seen in page 2 of the report, “Ninety-six CFOs responded during the two-week period ending November 22. Sixty-eight percent of the respondents are from public companies, and 79% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue.” Here are some …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – January 2, 2014 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on January 2, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 27, …

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U.S. Dollar Decline – January 2, 2014 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial …

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