America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” On the Doug Short site there is an update depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in the May 2, 2018 …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. On the Doug Short site, in the May 2, 2018 post titled “Real Median Household Income…” displays the median household income chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 26, 2018 update (reflecting data through April 20, 2018) is -1.068. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Tuesday’s (May 1, 2018) close, which had a closing value of 15.49. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of April 5, 2018, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2018.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2018, and were last updated as of April 27, 2018. As one can see, two of the three measures are very near …
Doug Short’s site had a post of April 27, 2018 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: April Final Improves“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find …