America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect. There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through February 28, 2020) from the Doug Short …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The post on the Doug Short site of February 28, 2020, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through January 2020, updated on February 27, 2020. This value is $246,199 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 20, 2020 update (reflecting data through February 14, 2020) is -1.604. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
My latest writing concerning the U.S. stock market as being an exceedingly large asset bubble can be found on “The Immense Stock Market Bubble And Future Economic Consequences” page. The existence and future consequences of a bubble of this size are highly noteworthy and vastly problematical. The effects this asset bubble has had – and …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 24, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.25: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …