America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through November 2022. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 1, 2022 update (reflecting data through November 25, 2022) is -.2560: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portrayed a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, and now indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is …
In the last post (“3rd Quarter 2022 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this …
Today’s (November 30, 2022) GDP release (Q3 2022, Second Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (Preliminary Estimate) for the 3rd Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of November 29, 2022 (“Consumer Confidence Falls Again in November“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these …
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through September) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of November 29, 2022 titled “Case-Shiller : National House Price Index…“: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October 2022, updated on November 23, 2022. This value is $277,375 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …