America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years, on a monthly basis: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …
On October 6, 2015 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Flat in September.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged -14 for September, essentially the same as the -13 in August. From a broader perspective, the index has declined steadily since peaking at +3 in January. also: Twenty-four percent …
While there are various similarities between the economic situation of 2008 and 2015, there are also many notable differences. A comprehensive comparison would be extensively lengthy and would contain many complex aspects. As such, no short discussion can even begin to be a comprehensive discussion of the economic and financial similarities and differences of the …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Doug Short had a blog post of September 29, 2015 (“Consumer Confidence Improved Moderately in September“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August, updated on September 24, 2015. This value is $236,322 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) …
This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of July 27, 2015 titled “U.S. Deflation – July 27, 2015 Update.” I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2015“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 to 2015:Q2). The last value (as of September 21, 2015) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of September 18, 2015 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High at end of Q2.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to …