America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of August 17, 2017, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q2 2018 management call transcript (pdf) dated August 17, 2017. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q2 results and related presentation materials) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts …
I have written extensively about U.S. interest rates and their importance. Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy. My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag. From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” category. …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
On August 1, 2017 Gallup released the poll results titled “Americans’ Confidence in Economy Positive but Near 2017 Low.” Notable excerpts include: Americans’ confidence in the economy was steady last month, with Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaging +4 in July. This score is nearly identical to the 2017 low of +3 registered in May and June. Still, …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of July 28, 2017. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
Doug Short had a blog post of July 28, 2017 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: July Final Continues to Slip“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%” post of July 28, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q2 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of July 28, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they …