America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of July 30, 2021 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment…“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings and trends …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2021, and were last updated as of July 29, 2021. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.187: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of July 29, 2021 titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP Inches Up To 6.5%…,” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) of July 29, 2021: _________ I post various indicators and …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2021, updated on July 27, 2021. This value is $257,627 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Today (July 19, 2021) the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) declared the end of the recession that began in February 2020. [That declaration of recession was highlighted in the post titled “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC.”] Today’s announcement is seen on the NBER page …
The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years, even during the longest U.S. economic expansion that recently ended. [The June 8, 2020 NBER BCDC declaration of U.S. …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. …