America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2021, and were last updated as of January 27, 2022. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.18: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of January 27, 2022 titled “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP At 6.89%…,” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2021 (Advance Estimate) of January 27, 2022: _________ I post various indicators and …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2021, updated on January 27, 2022. This value is $267,629 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years. These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Advisor Perspectives’ post of December 30, 2021, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index Update” …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of December 28, 2021 (“Consumer Confidence Improved in December“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings …