America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The current levels of each are notable, as they are flagging from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink. Doug Short, in his blog post …
Doug Short had a blog post of December 27 (“Consumer Confidence Takes a Plunge“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November, last updated on December 21. This value is 220,941 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 19 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of December 19 …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now – 41 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These charts raise a lot …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2012“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2012:Q3). The last value (as of December 6, 2012) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of December 6, 2012 titled “Fed’s Q3 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1.15 Trillion from Peak.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 3Q 2012 report: (click on chart to enlarge image) …
On December 4, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence in November Best in Four Years.” The subtitle is “Average index score of -13 for the month.” Two of the most notable excerpts: Americans’ economic confidence was better in November than in any month since Gallup began tracking confidence daily in January 2008. The -13 …