America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On June 2, 2015 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Slides to -7 in May.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index dropped to an average of -7 in May, down from -3 in April. This drop continues the monthly downward drift since confidence peaked at +3 in January, and is …
Doug Short had a blog post of May 29, 2015 (“Michigan Consumer Up from Preliminary , but still Below April Final“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through April, updated on May 26, 2015. This value is $235,527 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q1 2016 management call transcript (pdf) dated May 19, 2015. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q1 results(pdf)) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts are found under …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through May 15, 2015) from Doug Short’s blog …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Doug Short had a blog post of May 1, 2015 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 95.9, Unchanged from the Preliminary Report“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2015, and were last updated as of April 29, 2015. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate Surprises to the Downside” post of April 29, 2015, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 29, 2015: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX …