America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The …
There are two other aspects I would like to highlight with regard to the stock market. First, per my last two posts, my analysis indicates the entire stock market is currently a bubble. Given that conclusion, as well as my opinion that there are various other asset bubbles in existence right now, I would …
(This post is made in conjunction with the last post, “The Stock Market Bubble – General Comments“) There are various aspects of the stock market that lead me to conclude that the stock market is experiencing a bubble. First, for reference purposes, here is a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500 updated through February 28, …
In the February 11, 2011 post (“Stock Market Comment“) I mentioned, among other comments, that I believed the stock market, as a whole, is currently a bubble. I would like to elaborate upon my reasoning for such, especially since it is a view (admittedly) held by very few. What makes this stock market bubble particularly …
Starting with my June 2, 2010 post I wrote of my expectation for a near-term stock market advance despite what I viewed as highly problematical future conditions. I continue to maintain this view, albeit with the dangers discussed in subsequent posts, including that of October 13, 2010 “Comments On The Next Crash.” Although I continue …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The …
On May 3, 2010 I wrote a post concerning the notable divergence that had occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. Since that May post, the divergence has grown. The chart below illustrate this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. My previous post concerning their estimates can be found at the September 17 and May 30 posts) Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $94.79/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings …
Today’s Barron’s has a cover story titled “Outlook 2011.” Among the average forecasts of the 10 respondents (strategists and investment managers) was the following: A year-end 2011 S&P500 target of 1373.25 $92.90 S&P500 EPS for 2011 $100.83 S&P500 EPS for 2012 (an average from 6 respondents) 3.2% GDP growth for 2011 In a separate story …
The December 9, 2010 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2010 1200 June 30, 2011 1250 Dec. 30, 2011 1298.5 Dec. 31, 2012 1350 These figures represent the median value across the 33 forecasters on the …