America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
“Don’t fight the Fed” is a phrase that has been in existence for decades, and has been heard often, especially lately. Other related phrases heard include “the Fed’s got your back.” And, of course, “the Bernanke Put” and, while Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman, “the Greenspan Put.” Many of these phrases seem related to the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found on September 17, May 30, and December 30) Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $96.21/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The …
There are two other aspects I would like to highlight with regard to the stock market. First, per my last two posts, my analysis indicates the entire stock market is currently a bubble. Given that conclusion, as well as my opinion that there are various other asset bubbles in existence right now, I would …
(This post is made in conjunction with the last post, “The Stock Market Bubble – General Comments“) There are various aspects of the stock market that lead me to conclude that the stock market is experiencing a bubble. First, for reference purposes, here is a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500 updated through February 28, …
In the February 11, 2011 post (“Stock Market Comment“) I mentioned, among other comments, that I believed the stock market, as a whole, is currently a bubble. I would like to elaborate upon my reasoning for such, especially since it is a view (admittedly) held by very few. What makes this stock market bubble particularly …
Starting with my June 2, 2010 post I wrote of my expectation for a near-term stock market advance despite what I viewed as highly problematical future conditions. I continue to maintain this view, albeit with the dangers discussed in subsequent posts, including that of October 13, 2010 “Comments On The Next Crash.” Although I continue …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The …
On May 3, 2010 I wrote a post concerning the notable divergence that had occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. Since that May post, the divergence has grown. The chart below illustrate this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. My previous post concerning their estimates can be found at the September 17 and May 30 posts) Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $94.79/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings …