America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2021 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 12, 2021. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2021: 4.5% full-year 2022: 3.7% full-year 2023: …
The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 11, 2021. The headline is “Forecasters Lift Expectations for 2021 Economic Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: Economists on …
Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 4, 2021 update (reflecting data through January 29, 2021) is -.4489: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through January 2021. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 11, 2021, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2021.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 25, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .52: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 21, 2021 update (reflecting data through January 15, 2021) is -.7384: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2021. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Growth Will Exceed 4% in 2021.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An …