On October 2, 2019, The Conference Board released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 34, down from 43 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this October 2, 2019 Press Release include:
CEOs have grown more pessimistic about current economic conditions, with only 8 percent saying conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 13 percent last quarter. Close to three-quarters say conditions are worse, up from 42 percent in Q2. CEOs were also more negative about current conditions in their own industries compared to six months ago. Currently, only 15 percent say conditions are better, down from 21 percent last quarter. Close to two-thirds say conditions are worse, up from about one-third in Q2.
Looking ahead, CEOs’ expectations regarding the economic outlook deteriorated further. Now, just 4 percent anticipate economic conditions will improve over the next six months, down from 13 percent in the second quarter. Meanwhile, 67 percent expect economic conditions will worsen, up from 44 percent last quarter. CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries over the next six months were also more pessimistic. Now, only 13 percent anticipate an improvement in conditions, down from 17 percent last quarter. Those expecting conditions will worsen in the short-term rose from 38 percent last quarter to 56 percent in Q3.
Last month, the Business Roundtable also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2019. Notable excerpts from the September 18 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Decreases in Q3“:
The CEO Economic Outlook Index decreased 10.3 points from last quarter to a value of 79.2, which falls below the Index’s historical average of 82.7. While the lower index reading suggests some moderation in the pace of economic growth going forward, the Index remains within growth territory.
In their fourth estimate of 2019 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.3 percent growth for the year, which dropped 0.3 percentage point from last quarter’s estimate of 2.6 percent.
Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2887.61 as this post is written